试题与答案

某时装公司拟投资4000万元开发一个时装设计生产项目,项目的成败取决于时装的设计是否

题型:问答题 案例分析题

题目:

某时装公司拟投资4000万元开发一个时装设计生产项目,项目的成败取决于时装的设计是否符合流行趋势,且营销是否成功。通过采用专家调查法进行分析,认为可能出现四种状态:状态Ⅰ,设计符合流行趋势,产品营销获得成功,实现预定的销售收入;状态Ⅱ,设计符合流行趋势,但产品营销不成功,只能实现预定销售收入的80%;状态Ⅲ,设计不符合流行趋势,但成功的营销有效改善了销售效果,可以实现预定销售收入的50%;状态Ⅵ,设计不符合流行趋势,且产品营销失败,只能实现预定销售收入的30%。时装设计符合流行趋势及产品营销成功的概率预测见表2。项目投资发生在第1年年初,当年投产运营。项目的寿命期3年,预定销售收入和经营成本数据见表3。在不同状态下经营成本保持不变,财务基准收益率为10%。

计算财务净现值的期望值,并判断投资是否财务可行。

答案:

参考答案:

计算财务净现值的期望值,见表7。状态Ⅰ发生的概率是0.6×0.7=0.42状态Ⅱ发生的概率是0.6×0.3=0.18状态Ⅲ发生的概率是0.4×0.7=0.28状态Ⅳ发生的概率是0.4×0.3=0.12财务净现值的期望值是:(4928×0.42+1807×0.18-2876×0.28-5997×0.12)万元=870万元>0,所以本投资在财务上可行。

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